ITNYSEThe short version
Gartner, Inc.
Gartner sells subscription research to corporate technology and business leaders, a high-margin, cash-generative franchise; its core contract value has stalled, and the shares now sit about three-quarters below their 2025 peak.
From about $101 at the end of 2016 the shares compounded more than fivefold to a $552 close in late 2024, then round-tripped — trading near $142 by July 2026, roughly three-quarters below the peak.
$142
Share price
$9.9B
Market cap
$6.5B
Revenue (FY2025)
~10×
Forward P/E
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As reported
Six-and-a-half billion in revenue, converted to cash unusually well
FY2021 → FY2025as reported · $
Revenue$6.5B+4%
Gross margin68.8%+0.5pp
Operating margin15.8%−2.7pp
Net income$729M−42%
EPS$9.65−40%
Open the full statements →- Revenue. Grew from $4.7B in 2021 to $6.5B in 2025, about 4% in the latest year — the subscription base still expands, but growth has slowed markedly.
- Margins. Reported operating margin fell from 20.9% (2023) to 15.8% (2025) on one-off charges; adjusted EBITDA still reached a record $1,611M at roughly a 25% margin.
- Cash. Operating cash flow was $1.29B in 2025 against $729M of net income — paid-in-advance contracts convert profit to cash at over 100%.
Full statements in the Metrics tab.
Capital allocation
A $6 billion buyback that reads as a conviction bet, not EPS engineering
Free cash flow vs share repurchases ($M)
Across 2021–2025 buybacks absorbed roughly every dollar of free cash flow.
- Not EPS engineering. Earnings per share appears nowhere in the pay plan — the bonus is set on revenue and EBITDA, the equity award on Contract Value — so the ~$6.0B of buybacks reads as a conviction bet on the cash flows, not a per-share target.
- Underwater, so far. The 21.5M shares bought at a ~$280 blend are worth about $3.1B against ~$6.0B paid; only the ~$535M repurchased in Q1 2026 near $142 clears the ~$187 no-growth mark — 2025's ~$284 average sits above it.
- The wager. If contract value re-accelerates, retiring a fifth of the shares below their eventual worth reads as conviction; if it fades, as borrowing to buy a shrinking stream.
Key finding: Across 2021-2025 Gartner repurchased about $6.0 billion of stock (~103% of cumulative free cash flow) at a blended average near $280 a share, funding 2025's record $2.0 billion program partly with $800 million of new ~5.3% senior notes, into a stock that fell to about $142 by mid-2026; yet executive pay is tied to Contract Value, EBITDA and revenue rather than earnings per share, and the CEO's 2025 compensation actually paid was negative $7.0 million against a $19.2 million grant-date total, so the buyback ran ahead of the market price without being an EPS-target mechanism — and it was executed while GTS contract value was flat at $3,910 million and total contract value only 1% higher.
What Gartner is
Subscription research is the engine: 78% of revenue, roughly 90% of segment profit
FY2025 revenue by segment
Insights$5,073M81%
Conferences$645M10%
Consulting$552M9%
Insights also carried a 77% gross-contribution margin — nearly nine of every ten profit dollars.
- Insights. Sells on-demand access to research, data and 2,400+ analysts on subscriptions paid in advance; it produced $5.07B of revenue and $3.89B of segment gross contribution in 2025.
- Concentration. Global Technology Sales is about three times Global Business Sales by contract value, so the case is most concentrated in the technology-buyer base.
- The rest. Conferences ($645M) runs 50-plus in-person events; Consulting ($552M) does project-based advisory — together under a quarter of revenue and a tenth of profit.
The stall
Contract value stopped growing and wallet retention fell below 100%
Wallet retention: GTS vs GBS
Above 100%, existing clients spend more each year; below it, the base shrinks in dollars before new sales.
- Flat book. GTS contract value ended 2025 at $3,910M, essentially flat year-on-year; total contract value rose just 1% to about $5.3B.
- Spending less. GTS wallet retention fell to 96% from 102% and GBS to 99% from 106% — both below 100% for the first time in years, on lower spend by existing clients.
- Still keeping clients. Client (logo) retention held near 85% — Gartner is keeping its customers; it is keeping less of their spend.
Competitive position
The category leader is winning share of a shrinking niche
Gartner vs Forrester (FY2025)
| Metric | Gartner | Forrester |
|---|---|---|
| Contract value | $5.3B | $292M |
| CV growth | +1% | −6% |
| Client retention | 85% | 77% |
| Wallet retention | 96% | 87% |
Forrester is the one pure syndicated-research peer.
- Scale. Gartner's contract value is about 17 times Forrester's, with retention nearly ten points higher and still growing where Forrester's is shrinking.
- Category, not company. Forrester is contracting on every line too — evidence the pressure is on the whole syndicated-research category, not a Gartner-specific stumble.
- The floor that matters. Client retention has held an 83-89% band for five years; a break below ~83% would signal the moat itself, not just pricing, is failing.
Structural risk
AI cuts both ways for a business that sells packaged expertise
Artificial intelligence, read two ways
| Supports durability | Structural threat |
|---|---|
| Most-requested client topic; an AI tool over its research launched Aug 2025 to defend renewals | The 10-K concedes LLMs 'could reduce the need to enter our websites' |
| Client engagement rose ~170bps YoY, which management links to higher renewals | Clients loading its content into LLMs 'could reduce the value of our offerings' |
| Forrester's rival AI product lifted its client retention +4pt | The wallet-retention slide began in 2021-2023, before the macro shock |
- Gartner's own words. The 10-K names AI as a disruptive force that 'could affect the nature of how we generate revenue' and expects 'more competition with increased adoption of AI services'.
- The defense. Gartner is embedding AI into its research and reports rising engagement; whether that converts to renewals is a leading indicator of a lagging one.
Profitability
Headline margin compression is mostly one-offs; the clean line held
Operating margin: reported vs one-offs stripped
Stripping a 2023 gain and a 2025 impairment, operating margin held near 18%.
- Adjusted stability. Adjusted EBITDA rose to a record $1,611M in 2025 at about a 25% margin, even as reported operating margin fell to 15.8%.
- EPS, partly bought. Adjusted EPS grew from $11.33 (2023) to $13.17 (2025), roughly 8% a year — a meaningful slice from a lower share count rather than more profit.
Pay and incentives
Management is paid on the operating metrics, not the share count
$0
Weight on EPS in the pay plan
−$7.0M
CEO 2025 comp actually paid
70%
Long-term award tied to Contract Value
- What they grow. The annual bonus is set on revenue and EBITDA (50/50); the long-term award is 70% tied to Contract Value — the leading indicator the whole case turns on.
- Skin in the game. As the shares fell, the CEO's 2025 compensation actually paid went to negative $7.0M against a $19.2M grant-date total — so the buyback was not an EPS-target mechanism.
The newest quarters
The stall is concentrated in a lapping US federal book
Contract-value growth by quarter (YoY, FX-neutral)
Ex-US-federal, Q1 2026 grew 3.5% against the 1% headline.
- Concentrated in federal. Ex-US-federal, Q1 2026 contract value grew 3.5% against the 1% headline; GTS wallet retention ticked up to 97% (99% ex-federal), its first improvement in over a year, and Conferences grew 9% on a 15% rise in vendor exhibitor revenue.
- Broader than federal. The softest work is the most deferrable: Consulting labor-based revenue fell 5% with utilization at 61% and backlog down 7% in 2025, then Consulting revenue fell a further 15% in Q1 2026.
- What it hinges on. The ~$5.3B contract value governs the ~78%-of-revenue Insights line and the ~$1.2B cash base; if ex-federal ~3.5% holds, the ~$187 no-growth floor holds — if it fades toward flat, the base itself shrinks.
Key finding: Total contract-value growth was flat-to-1% from end-2025 into the first quarter of 2026, but excluding a US federal book that was a roughly 250-basis-point drag the base grew 3.5% and GTS wallet retention ticked up to 97% (99% ex-federal) for its first improvement in over a year, while the most discretionary segment, Conferences, grew 9% currency-neutral to $644.7 million on a 15% rise in vendor exhibitor revenue, so vendor willingness to pay to reach Gartner's audience rose even as retained-client subscription spend fell.
Two cyclical reads
Vendors are paying more to reach the audience even as project spend falls
Opposite-signed cycles
| Segment | Latest reading |
|---|---|
| Conferences revenue | +9% currency-neutral to $644.7M (FY2025) |
| Exhibitor (vendor) revenue | +15% — vendors paying more for access |
| Consulting revenue | −15% YoY in Q1 2026; utilization 61%, backlog −7% |
- Vendor demand up. Conferences revenue grew 9% currency-neutral to $644.7M on a 15% rise in exhibitor revenue — vendor willingness to pay rose even as retained-client spend fell.
- Discretionary caution. Consulting, the most deferrable work, fell 15% year-on-year in Q1 2026 with utilization at 61% — early, high-frequency evidence on the cyclical-versus-structural read.
The repricing
From 41 times forward earnings to about 10
Multiple compression: Feb-2025 peak vs mid-2026
- The reset. At about $142 the shares trade near 10 times forward earnings and 8-9 times free cash flow — an 11.9% free-cash-flow yield, a quarter of the peak multiple.
- Priced for decline. On a plain discounted-cash-flow read, $142 implies free cash flow shrinks 2-3% a year forever; merely holding it flat is worth about $187 a share.
What it's worth
Cheap if the stall is cyclical; a value trap if the base keeps eroding
Scenario value per share
Structural fade
$110-150
Consensus mean
$165
No-growth floor
$187
Cyclical recovery
$230-275
Values on the ~$1.2B free-cash-flow base; the record tilts cyclical with a structural tail the price already reflects.
- Where the price sits. At $141.61 the market pays below a no-growth valuation — close to the structural case — so risk-reward skews favorably if the cash base merely holds.
- What decides it. Whether contract value re-crosses into growth once the federal drag laps; because of the one-year revenue lag, the cleaner read belongs to 2027, not this year.
What to watch
A cash-rich franchise priced for decline: cheap if the stall proves cyclical, a value trap if the base keeps eroding.
- 01Ex-federal contract-value growth: stepping above ~4% as the federal book laps reads cyclical; stalling at or below ~3.5% reads structural.
- 02New business (down 4% GTS / 2% GBS) turning positive year-on-year in either segment during 2026.
- 03GTS wallet retention holding its uptick while GBS stops sliding; client (logo) retention holding its 83-89% five-year band.
- 04The free-cash-flow base near $1.2B holding rather than eroding as the working-capital tailwind fades.
This distills a guided study of Gartner built chapter by chapter — from the subscription engine and capital allocation to valuation and the cyclical-versus-structural question.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-13 · For information, not investment advice.